What the 2016 Trump vs. Clinton U.S. Election will come down to

Yes, Trump has had his post-convention bounce... But I think most Bernie supporters will still get in line behind Clinton. Michelle Obama's speech at the DNC was extraordinary. I think it will do more to unite the Democrats than Bernie's warm-tepid-warm endorsement of Hillary.

In the end, Clinton will get her own post-convention bounce (which is not guaranteed, mind you, and especially in this age where attention is so fragmented) and top Trump in the near-term polling. At the time of writing Trump was ahead in the polls-- CNN/ORC had him up by 3 points. 

My prediction: if there is a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil leading up to election night Trump will win; if not, Hillary will win. I think that's what it will come down to.